Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 / Torre del Mar vs Torreperogil

Torre del Mar vs Torreperogil Statistics & Analysis

Torre del Mar Torre del Mar
May 10, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Torreperogil Torreperogil
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Torre del Mar Torreperogil ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1549551

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Torreperogil win · Torre del Mar 1–2 Torreperogil
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
  • Fixture: Torre del Mar vs Torreperogil
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Torre del Mar 1.45 — Torreperogil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 70.4% · Over 2.5 29.6%); BTTS No (Yes 33.1% · No 66.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 33.1% · No 66.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (17.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 54
5 Churriana Vega 34 14 10 10 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 49
9 Atlético Porcuna 34 14 4 16 46
10 Huétor Vega 34 12 9 13 45
11 Granada II 34 10 14 10 44
12 Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 43
13 UD Melilla II 34 9 12 13 39
14 Mancha Real 34 9 10 15 37
15 Huétor Tájar 34 9 10 15 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 37
17 Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Motril 34 55 29 +26 65
2 Granada II 34 49 47 +2 44
3 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 46 24 +22 66
4 Huétor Vega 34 43 42 +1 45
5 Atlético Porcuna 34 41 39 +2 46
6 Alhaurino 34 41 41 0 43
7 Huétor Tájar 34 40 44 -4 37
8 UD San Pedro 34 39 37 +2 49
9 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 39 38 +1 50
10 Arenas Armilla 34 38 29 +9 54
11 Torre del Mar 34 37 26 +11 55
12 Marbelli 34 36 28 +8 51
13 Churriana Vega 34 32 40 -8 52
14 Martos 34 32 48 -16 37
15 UD Melilla II 34 30 32 -2 39
16 Mancha Real 34 30 38 -8 37
17 El Palo 34 28 53 -25 27
18 Torreperogil 34 24 45 -21 33
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Predictions