Granada II vs Mijas Las Lagunas Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
• Fixture: Granada II vs Mijas Las Lagunas
• Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
• xG (showing): Granada II 1.45 — Mijas Las Lagunas 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
• Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.6% · Over 2.5 40.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.7% · No 49.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
• BTTS (model): Yes 50.7% · No 49.3%
• Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Skip unless odds move — the engine sees no line clearing the +EV gate.

Treat this page as a read-only diagnostic: totals/BTTS structure can be informative even when the honest answer is to wait.

Correct-score markets remain high-variance even when one scoreline leads the table.

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

Is the most likely correct score still relevant?

As context only: it is still a low absolute probability tail outcome (often in the single digits, sometimes low teens). It does not override the “no headline +EV” stance — treat score bets as fun-sized if you play them at all.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)