Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 / Deportivo Alavés III vs Portugalete

Deportivo Alavés III vs Portugalete Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Alavés III Deportivo Alavés III
May 09, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Portugalete Portugalete
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Deportivo Alavés III Portugalete ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 20:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2086641

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Portugalete win · Deportivo Alavés III 1–2 Portugalete
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Deportivo Alavés III vs Portugalete
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Alavés III 1.45 — Portugalete 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 44.6% · Over 2.5 55.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 71.6% · No 28.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 71.6% · No 28.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 57
5 Touring 34 16 9 9 57
6 Real Sociedad III 34 17 4 13 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 55
8 Aurrerá Vitoria 34 16 7 12 54
9 Deportivo Alavés III 34 15 8 11 53
10 Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 45
11 Durango 34 11 11 12 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 39
13 Eibar III 34 9 9 16 36
14 Pasaia KE 34 9 9 16 36
15 Añorga 34 11 4 19 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 33
17 Zarautz 34 8 6 20 30
18 Deusto 34 6 8 21 26
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Portugalete 34 70 29 +41 78
2 Deportivo Alavés III 34 57 40 +17 53
3 Aretxabaleta 34 56 61 -5 45
4 Derio 34 54 40 +14 58
5 Lagun Onak 34 53 34 +19 57
6 Leioa 34 50 34 +16 61
7 Real Sociedad III 34 48 39 +9 55
8 Touring 34 47 35 +12 57
9 Eibar III 34 44 53 -9 36
10 Aurrerá Vitoria 34 42 40 +2 54
11 Zamudio 34 42 59 -17 33
12 San Ignacio 34 37 27 +10 55
13 Añorga 34 37 59 -22 34
14 Durango 34 35 36 -1 44
15 Santurtzi 34 32 45 -13 39
16 Zarautz 34 30 60 -30 30
17 Pasaia KE 34 26 46 -20 36
18 Deusto 34 26 49 -23 26
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions