Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 / Villalbés vs Polvorín

Villalbés vs Polvorín Statistics & Analysis

Villalbés Villalbés
May 10, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Polvorín Polvorín
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Villalbés Villalbés ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 16:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2628082

Closing Odds 3.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Villalbés win · Villalbés 2–1 Polvorín
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Villalbés (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 10.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Villalbés (1X2) 41.8 38.6 +3.1
Draw (1X2) 25.7 29.0 -3.4
Polvorín (1X2) 32.6 32.3 +0.2
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 40.0 +10.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 60.0 -10.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.0%. The difference — about 10.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Villalbés (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0
Polvorín (1X2) 2.75 2.75 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.28 2.28 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.52 1.52 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Villalbés vs Polvorín
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Villalbés 1.45 — Polvorín 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +10.4 pts · Est. EV: +20.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (13.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Villalbés & Polvorín!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Arosa 34 20 10 4 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 68
3 Atlético Arteixo 34 16 10 8 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 53
5 Villalbés 34 13 13 8 52
6 Boiro 34 13 12 9 51
7 Celta de Vigo III 34 13 12 9 51
8 Somozas 34 13 12 9 51
9 Coruña 34 12 12 10 48
10 Polvorín 34 12 12 10 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 38
15 Silva 34 9 9 16 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 25
18 Barbadás 34 4 7 23 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Arosa 34 58 35 +23 70
2 Celta de Vigo III 34 57 42 +15 51
3 Compostela 34 55 28 +27 68
4 Atlético Arteixo 34 54 44 +10 58
5 Coruña 34 48 42 +6 48
6 Celtiga 34 47 48 -1 40
7 Estradense 34 46 33 +13 53
8 Boiro 34 45 29 +16 51
9 Alondras 34 45 48 -3 45
10 Polvorín 34 41 35 +6 48
11 Somozas 34 37 32 +5 51
12 Villalbés 34 36 29 +7 52
13 Silva 34 36 48 -12 36
14 Barco 34 35 41 -6 46
15 Noia 34 28 57 -29 25
16 Viveiro 34 27 41 -14 38
17 Barbadás 34 25 69 -44 19
18 Cambados 34 24 43 -19 26
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions