Namungo vs Mashujaa Statistics & Analysis

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

• League: Ligi kuu Bara
• Fixture: Namungo vs Mashujaa
• Kickoff: 2026-05-08 15:30:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
• xG (showing): Namungo 1.45 — Mashujaa 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 78.3% · Implied: 68.4% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.5%
• BTTS (model): Yes 28.6% · No 71.4%
• Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (20.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Primary angle highlighted on the page: Under 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)