Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone I / Vibonese vs Acireale

Vibonese vs Acireale Statistics & Analysis

Vibonese Vibonese
May 03, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Acireale Acireale
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vibonese Vibonese ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2055760

Closing Odds 3.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vibonese win · Vibonese 1–0 Acireale
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Acireale (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Acireale (1X2) by about 5.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vibonese (1X2) 41.8 43.1 -1.4
Draw (1X2) 25.7 29.3 -3.7
Acireale (1X2) 32.6 27.5 +5.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Acireale (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.5%. The difference — about 5.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Vibonese (1X2) 2.06 2.06 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.03 3.03 0.0
Acireale (1X2) 3.23 3.23 0.0

Get Premium Predictions for Vibonese & Acireale!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Serie D - Girone I Serie D - Girone I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Savoia 34 20 9 5 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 66
4 AC Palermo 34 18 6 10 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 43
10 Vigor Lamezia 34 11 9 14 42
11 CastrumFavara 34 10 8 16 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 35
14 Ragusa 34 7 13 14 34
15 Acireale 34 7 12 15 32
16 Messina 34 11 13 10 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 29
18 Paternò 34 4 7 23 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Savoia 34 63 29 +34 69
2 AC Palermo 34 59 47 +12 60
3 Nissa 34 50 26 +24 67
4 Enna 34 50 53 -3 36
5 Igea Virtus 34 49 36 +13 53
6 Reggina 34 44 23 +21 66
7 Gelbison 34 44 32 +12 60
8 Vigor Lamezia 34 43 35 +8 42
9 Gela 34 41 44 -3 43
10 Sambiase 34 38 30 +8 53
11 CastrumFavara 34 38 47 -9 38
12 Acireale 34 37 49 -12 32
13 Vibonese 34 32 47 -15 35
14 Sancataldese 34 31 49 -18 29
15 Milazzo 34 30 36 -6 44
16 Messina 34 28 33 -5 32
17 Ragusa 34 23 34 -11 34
18 Paternò 34 21 71 -50 19