Savoia vs Sancataldese Statistics & Analysis

Savoia

May 03, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Sancataldese

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Savoia Savoia ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1635852

Closing Odds 1.39

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Savoia win · Savoia 3–0 Sancataldese

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sancataldese (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sancataldese (1X2) by about 18.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Savoia (1X2)	41.8	64.6	-22.9
Draw (1X2)	25.7	21.6	+4.0
Sancataldese (1X2)	32.6	13.7	+18.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Sancataldese (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.7%. The difference — about 18.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Savoia (1X2)	1.39	1.39
Draw (1X2)	4.15	4.15
Sancataldese (1X2)	6.55	6.55

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Serie D - Girone I — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Savoia	34	20	9	5	69
2	Nissa	34	19	10	5	67
3	Reggina	34	20	6	8	66
4	AC Palermo	34	18	6	10	60
5	Gelbison	34	17	9	8	60
6	Sambiase	34	14	11	9	53
7	Igea Virtus	34	15	13	6	53
8	Milazzo	34	12	8	14	44
9	Gela	34	13	5	16	43
10	Vigor Lamezia	34	11	9	14	42
11	CastrumFavara	34	10	8	16	38
12	Enna	34	8	12	14	36
13	Vibonese	34	8	11	15	35
14	Ragusa	34	7	13	14	34
15	Acireale	34	7	12	15	32
16	Messina	34	11	13	10	32
17	Sancataldese	34	7	8	19	29
18	Paternò	34	4	7	23	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Savoia	34	63	29	+34	69
2	AC Palermo	34	59	47	+12	60
3	Nissa	34	50	26	+24	67
4	Enna	34	50	53	-3	36
5	Igea Virtus	34	49	36	+13	53
6	Reggina	34	44	23	+21	66
7	Gelbison	34	44	32	+12	60
8	Vigor Lamezia	34	43	35	+8	42
9	Gela	34	41	44	-3	43
10	Sambiase	34	38	30	+8	53
11	CastrumFavara	34	38	47	-9	38
12	Acireale	34	37	49	-12	32
13	Vibonese	34	32	47	-15	35
14	Sancataldese	34	31	49	-18	29
15	Milazzo	34	30	36	-6	44
16	Messina	34	28	33	-5	32
17	Ragusa	34	23	34	-11	34
18	Paternò	34	21	71	-50	19