Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone H / Virtus Francavilla vs Sarnese

Virtus Francavilla vs Sarnese Statistics & Analysis

Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla
May 03, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Sarnese Sarnese
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Virtus Francavilla Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 13:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1708808

Closing Odds 3.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Virtus Francavilla 2–2 Sarnese
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sarnese (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sarnese (1X2) by about 2.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Virtus Francavilla (1X2) 41.8 41.4 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 25.7 28.8 -3.1
Sarnese (1X2) 32.6 29.8 +2.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Sarnese (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.8%. The difference — about 2.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Virtus Francavilla (1X2) 2.17 2.17 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.12 3.12 0.0
Sarnese (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0

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Serie D - Girone H Serie D - Girone H — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 70
2 Martina Franca 34 18 8 8 62
3 Città di Fasano 34 18 8 8 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 58
5 Nardò 34 14 13 7 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 55
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 13 10 11 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 48
10 Real Agro Aversa 34 10 13 11 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 41
14 Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 30
18 Real Acerrana 34 3 5 26 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barletta 34 54 20 +34 70
2 Città di Fasano 34 51 35 +16 62
3 Sarnese 34 51 49 +2 41
4 Gravina 34 50 40 +10 55
5 Martina Franca 34 47 30 +17 62
6 Virtus Francavilla 34 45 40 +5 48
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 45 46 -1 49
8 Nola 1925 34 42 50 -8 41
9 Nardò 34 40 27 +13 55
10 Francavilla 34 39 38 +1 43
11 Paganese 34 36 32 +4 58
12 Fidelis Andria 34 35 28 +7 48
13 Manfredonia 34 34 39 -5 43
14 Heraclea 34 31 39 -8 38
15 Real Agro Aversa 34 27 26 +1 43
16 Pompei 34 26 38 -12 34
17 Ferrandina 34 21 43 -22 30
18 Real Acerrana 34 20 74 -54 14
Serie D - Girone H Italy. Serie D - Girone H Predictions