Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone F / Atletico Ascoli vs Teramo

Atletico Ascoli vs Teramo Statistics & Analysis

Atletico Ascoli Atletico Ascoli
May 03, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Teramo Teramo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atletico Ascoli Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1631291

Closing Odds 2.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Atletico Ascoli 1–1 Teramo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atletico Ascoli (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atletico Ascoli (1X2) by about 8.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Atletico Ascoli (1X2) 41.8 33.7 +8.1
Draw (1X2) 25.7 29.2 -3.5
Teramo (1X2) 32.6 37.1 -4.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Atletico Ascoli (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.7%. The difference — about 8.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Atletico Ascoli (1X2) 2.67 2.67 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.08 3.08 0.0
Teramo (1X2) 2.42 2.42 0.0

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Back to Statistics
Serie D - Girone F Serie D - Girone F — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ostia Mare 34 24 7 3 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55
5 San Nicolò 34 13 12 9 51
6 L'Aquila 34 14 9 11 51
7 Real Giulianova 34 11 16 7 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 44
10 ACD Maceratese 22 8 3 11 27
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 42
11 Termoli Calcio 34 8 15 11 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 38
13 Sora 34 9 11 14 38
14 Chieti 34 8 11 15 35
15 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 32
16 Victor San Marino 34 8 7 19 31
17 Castelfidardo Calcio 34 6 5 23 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ostia Mare 34 65 25 +40 79
2 Teramo 34 65 29 +36 74
3 Ancona 34 59 22 +37 76
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 55 34 +21 55
5 L'Aquila 34 53 44 +9 51
6 Vigor Senigallia 34 45 40 +5 49
7 San Nicolò 34 43 31 +12 51
8 Unipomezia 34 43 42 +1 42
9 Maceratese 34 43 49 -6 38
10 Real Giulianova 34 40 31 +9 49
11 Sora 34 40 50 -10 38
12 Recanatese 34 39 57 -18 32
13 ACD Maceratese 22 33 31 +2 27
14 Victor San Marino 34 33 61 -28 31
15 Chieti 34 31 55 -24 35
16 Castelfidardo Calcio 34 30 65 -35 23
17 Sammaurese 34 29 69 -40 22
18 Fossombrone 34 28 34 -6 44
19 Termoli Calcio 34 27 30 -3 39
Serie D - Girone F Italy. Serie D - Girone F Predictions