Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone A / Ligorna vs NovaRomentin

Ligorna vs NovaRomentin Statistics & Analysis

Ligorna Ligorna
May 03, 2026 - 13:00
9 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 12%
NovaRomentin NovaRomentin
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ligorna Ligorna ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 9-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1654006

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ligorna win · Ligorna 9–1 NovaRomentin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), NovaRomentin (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on NovaRomentin (1X2) by about 18.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ligorna (1X2) 41.8 65.1 -23.3
Draw (1X2) 25.7 20.8 +4.9
NovaRomentin (1X2) 32.6 14.2 +18.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on NovaRomentin (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.2%. The difference — about 18.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ligorna (1X2) 1.38 1.38 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0
NovaRomentin (1X2) 6.35 6.35 0.0

Get Premium Predictions for Ligorna & NovaRomentin!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Serie D - Girone A Serie D - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 72
3 Biellese 34 16 9 9 57
4 Città di Varese 34 16 8 10 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 42
12 Imperia 34 10 11 13 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 40
14 Derthona 34 11 7 16 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 39
16 Asti 34 8 11 15 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vado 34 69 24 +45 78
2 Ligorna 34 64 26 +38 72
3 Sestri Levante 34 54 34 +20 54
4 Biellese 34 48 29 +19 57
5 Saluzzo 34 48 44 +4 43
6 Chisola 34 44 36 +8 55
7 Città di Varese 34 43 43 0 56
8 Club Milano 34 43 49 -6 42
9 Celle Varazze 34 41 47 -6 44
10 Sanremese 34 37 30 +7 49
11 Gozzano 34 37 42 -5 39
12 Imperia 34 36 44 -8 41
13 Derthona 34 36 46 -10 40
14 Valenzana 34 33 48 -15 45
15 Asti 34 32 42 -10 35
16 Lavagnese 34 32 52 -20 27
17 Cairese 34 29 34 -5 40
18 NovaRomentin 34 26 82 -56 21
Serie D - Girone A Italy. Serie D - Girone A Predictions