Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie Women / Twente W vs PSV/Eindhoven W

Twente W vs PSV/Eindhoven W Statistics & Analysis

Twente W Twente W
May 22, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
PSV/Eindhoven W PSV/Eindhoven W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Twente W PSV/Eindhoven W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1631912

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result PSV/Eindhoven W win · Twente W 1–2 PSV/Eindhoven W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), PSV/Eindhoven W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Twente W (1X2) 41.8 49.7 -7.9
Draw (1X2) 25.7 21.8 +3.8
PSV/Eindhoven W (1X2) 32.6 28.5 +4.1
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 57.9 -7.3
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 42.1 +7.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.1%. The difference — about 7.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Twente W (1X2) 1.79 1.79 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.07 4.07 0.0
PSV/Eindhoven W (1X2) 3.12 3.12 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.19 2.19 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eredivisie Women
  • Fixture: Twente W vs PSV/Eindhoven W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-22 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Twente W 1.45 — PSV/Eindhoven W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 41.6% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +12.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 76.2% · No 23.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Eredivisie Women Eredivisie Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 PSV/Eindhoven W 21 16 3 2 51
2 Ajax W 21 14 5 2 47
3 Twente W 21 14 4 3 46
4 Feyenoord W 21 13 5 3 44
5 PEC Zwolle W 21 11 1 9 34
6 Utrecht W 21 10 4 7 34
7 Heerenveen W 21 8 2 11 26
8 AZ 21 5 6 10 21
9 Hera United W 21 5 5 11 20
10 ADO Den Haag W 21 5 4 12 19
11 Excelsior W 21 2 2 17 8
12 NAC Breda W 21 2 1 18 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 PSV/Eindhoven W 21 54 14 +40 51
2 Twente W 21 54 17 +37 46
3 Ajax W 21 52 17 +35 47
4 Feyenoord W 21 42 17 +25 44
5 Utrecht W 21 39 36 +3 34
6 Heerenveen W 21 37 48 -11 26
7 PEC Zwolle W 21 35 29 +6 34
8 AZ 21 35 46 -11 21
9 Hera United W 21 23 40 -17 20
10 ADO Den Haag W 21 21 45 -24 19
11 Excelsior W 21 18 50 -32 8
12 NAC Breda W 21 17 68 -51 7