Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie Women / Excelsior W vs Feyenoord W

Excelsior W vs Feyenoord W Statistics & Analysis

Excelsior W Excelsior W
May 08, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Feyenoord W Feyenoord W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Feyenoord W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 0-1, 1-2, 1-1, 0-3 0-3 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1653140

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Feyenoord W win · Excelsior W 0–3 Feyenoord W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eredivisie Women
  • Fixture: Excelsior W vs Feyenoord W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Excelsior W 1.45 — Feyenoord W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.5% · No 43.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.5% · No 43.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (10.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Women Eredivisie Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 PSV/Eindhoven W 21 16 3 2 51
2 Ajax W 21 14 5 2 47
3 Twente W 21 14 4 3 46
4 Feyenoord W 21 13 5 3 44
5 PEC Zwolle W 21 11 1 9 34
6 Utrecht W 21 10 4 7 34
7 Heerenveen W 21 8 2 11 26
8 AZ 21 5 6 10 21
9 Hera United W 21 5 5 11 20
10 ADO Den Haag W 21 5 4 12 19
11 Excelsior W 21 2 2 17 8
12 NAC Breda W 21 2 1 18 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 PSV/Eindhoven W 21 54 14 +40 51
2 Twente W 21 54 17 +37 46
3 Ajax W 21 52 17 +35 47
4 Feyenoord W 21 42 17 +25 44
5 Utrecht W 21 39 36 +3 34
6 Heerenveen W 21 37 48 -11 26
7 PEC Zwolle W 21 35 29 +6 34
8 AZ 21 35 46 -11 21
9 Hera United W 21 23 40 -17 20
10 ADO Den Haag W 21 21 45 -24 19
11 Excelsior W 21 18 50 -32 8
12 NAC Breda W 21 17 68 -51 7
Eredivisie Women Netherlands. Eredivisie Women Predictions