Čelik vs Igman Konjic Statistics & Analysis

Čelik

May 31, 2026 - 15:30

4 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 35%

Igman Konjic

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Čelik Čelik ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2911610

Closing Odds 1.3

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Čelik win · Čelik 4–0 Igman Konjic

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Igman Konjic (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Igman Konjic (1X2) by about 21.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Čelik (1X2)	41.8	68.9	-27.1
Draw (1X2)	25.7	19.9	+5.8
Igman Konjic (1X2)	32.6	11.2	+21.4
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	52.6	-2.0
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	47.4	+2.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Igman Konjic (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.2%. The difference — about 21.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Čelik (1X2)	1.3	1.3
Draw (1X2)	4.5	4.5
Igman Konjic (1X2)	8.0	8.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.8	1.8
Under 2.5 goals	2.0	2.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1st League - FBiH
Fixture: Čelik vs Igman Konjic
Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Čelik 1.45 — Igman Konjic 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.9% · Over 2.5 53.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 68.8% · No 31.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 68.8% · No 31.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (10.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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1st League - FBiH — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Čelik	26	17	8	1	59
2	Stupčanica Olovo	26	12	5	9	41
3	Sloboda Tuzla	26	12	5	9	41
4	Jedinstvo Bihać	26	12	5	9	41
5	GOŠK Gabela	26	11	7	8	40
6	Travnik	26	10	7	9	37
7	TOŠK Tešanj	26	10	7	9	37
8	Radnik Hadžići	26	10	6	10	36
9	Tomislav	26	8	8	10	32
10	Igman Konjic	26	9	5	12	32
11	Budućnost Banovići	26	8	7	11	31
12	Bratstvo Gračanica	26	7	10	9	31
13	Vitez	26	8	4	14	28
14	Tuzla City	26	5	2	19	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Čelik	26	52	19	+33	59
2	Stupčanica Olovo	26	40	27	+13	41
3	Tomislav	26	38	35	+3	32
4	GOŠK Gabela	26	36	26	+10	40
5	Travnik	26	35	26	+9	37
6	TOŠK Tešanj	26	35	30	+5	37
7	Sloboda Tuzla	26	34	29	+5	41
8	Radnik Hadžići	26	34	37	-3	36
9	Budućnost Banovići	26	31	33	-2	31
10	Jedinstvo Bihać	26	29	36	-7	41
11	Igman Konjic	26	29	44	-15	32
12	Vitez	26	27	38	-11	28
13	Bratstvo Gračanica	26	26	28	-2	31
14	Tuzla City	26	20	58	-38	17