Statistics / Football / South-Africa. 1st Division / The Bees vs Leicesterfield

The Bees vs Leicesterfield Statistics & Analysis

The Bees The Bees
May 10, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Leicesterfield Leicesterfield
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 The Bees The Bees ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 07:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1564839

Closing Odds 4.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result The Bees win · The Bees 2–1 Leicesterfield
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Leicesterfield (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
The Bees (1X2) 41.8 48.4 -6.6
Draw (1X2) 25.7 29.2 -3.5
Leicesterfield (1X2) 32.6 22.4 +10.2
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 38.0 +12.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 62.0 -12.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.0%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
The Bees (1X2) 1.87 1.87 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Leicesterfield (1X2) 4.04 4.04 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.43 2.43 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.49 1.49 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1st Division
  • Fixture: The Bees vs Leicesterfield
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): The Bees 1.45 — Leicesterfield 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 56.2% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +20.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 36.4% · No 63.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1st Division 1st Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kruger United 30 18 8 4 62
2 Cape Town City 30 15 9 6 54
3 Milford FC 30 16 6 8 54
4 Casric Stars 30 14 10 6 52
5 Hungry Lions 30 14 10 6 52
6 Highbury 30 12 6 12 42
7 Upington City 30 10 9 11 39
8 Lerumo Lions 30 10 9 11 39
9 Venda FC 30 9 9 12 36
10 The Bees 30 9 8 13 35
11 University of Pretoria 30 8 11 11 35
12 Leicesterfield 30 9 7 14 34
13 Gomora United FC 30 6 15 9 33
14 Midlands Wanderers 30 8 9 13 33
15 Black Leopards 30 6 10 14 28
16 Baroka FC 30 4 8 18 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kruger United 30 50 34 +16 62
2 Casric Stars 30 46 27 +19 52
3 Cape Town City 30 45 23 +22 54
4 Hungry Lions 30 41 25 +16 52
5 Milford FC 30 40 24 +16 54
6 The Bees 30 37 36 +1 35
7 University of Pretoria 30 37 41 -4 35
8 Lerumo Lions 30 36 36 0 39
9 Upington City 30 35 33 +2 39
10 Highbury 30 30 33 -3 42
11 Gomora United FC 30 28 39 -11 33
12 Midlands Wanderers 30 28 44 -16 33
13 Black Leopards 30 26 38 -12 28
14 Leicesterfield 30 25 43 -18 34
15 Venda FC 30 24 29 -5 36
16 Baroka FC 30 20 43 -23 20