Venda FC vs Leicesterfield Statistics & Analysis

Venda FC

May 03, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Leicesterfield

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Venda FC Venda FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 07:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1567273

Closing Odds 5.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Venda FC win · Venda FC 2–0 Leicesterfield

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Leicesterfield (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Leicesterfield (1X2) by about 16.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Venda FC (1X2)	41.8	57.5	-15.8
Draw (1X2)	25.7	26.8	-1.1
Leicesterfield (1X2)	32.6	15.7	+16.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Leicesterfield (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.7%. The difference — about 16.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Venda FC (1X2)	1.57	1.57
Draw (1X2)	3.37	3.37
Leicesterfield (1X2)	5.76	5.76

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1st Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kruger United	30	18	8	4	62
2	Cape Town City	30	15	9	6	54
3	Milford FC	30	16	6	8	54
4	Casric Stars	30	14	10	6	52
5	Hungry Lions	30	14	10	6	52
6	Highbury	30	12	6	12	42
7	Upington City	30	10	9	11	39
8	Lerumo Lions	30	10	9	11	39
9	Venda FC	30	9	9	12	36
10	The Bees	30	9	8	13	35
11	University of Pretoria	30	8	11	11	35
12	Leicesterfield	30	9	7	14	34
13	Gomora United FC	30	6	15	9	33
14	Midlands Wanderers	30	8	9	13	33
15	Black Leopards	30	6	10	14	28
16	Baroka FC	30	4	8	18	20

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kruger United	30	50	34	+16	62
2	Casric Stars	30	46	27	+19	52
3	Cape Town City	30	45	23	+22	54
4	Hungry Lions	30	41	25	+16	52
5	Milford FC	30	40	24	+16	54
6	The Bees	30	37	36	+1	35
7	University of Pretoria	30	37	41	-4	35
8	Lerumo Lions	30	36	36	0	39
9	Upington City	30	35	33	+2	39
10	Highbury	30	30	33	-3	42
11	Gomora United FC	30	28	39	-11	33
12	Midlands Wanderers	30	28	44	-16	33
13	Black Leopards	30	26	38	-12	28
14	Leicesterfield	30	25	43	-18	34
15	Venda FC	30	24	29	-5	36
16	Baroka FC	30	20	43	-23	20