Lexington W vs Brooklyn W Statistics & Analysis

Lexington W

May 10, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Brooklyn W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lexington W Lexington W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 17:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3455787

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Lexington W win · Lexington W 3–1 Brooklyn W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: USL Super League
Fixture: Lexington W vs Brooklyn W
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Lexington W 1.45 — Brooklyn W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 50.6% · Over 2.5 49.4%); BTTS No (Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Super League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lexington W	28	14	11	3	53
2	Sporting JAX	28	16	5	7	53
3	Carolina Ascent W	28	15	6	7	51
4	Dallas Trinity W	28	11	7	10	40
5	Spokane Zephyr W	28	10	9	9	39
6	DC Power W	28	8	9	11	33
7	Brooklyn W	28	6	8	14	26
8	Tampa Bay Sun W	28	5	9	14	24
9	Fort Lauderdale United W	28	5	8	15	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting JAX	28	54	32	+22	53
2	Lexington W	28	50	24	+26	53
3	Carolina Ascent W	28	39	27	+12	51
4	Dallas Trinity W	28	36	40	-4	40
5	Spokane Zephyr W	28	34	28	+6	39
6	DC Power W	28	34	32	+2	33
7	Brooklyn W	28	31	44	-13	26
8	Fort Lauderdale United W	28	30	62	-32	23
9	Tampa Bay Sun W	28	27	46	-19	24