Spokane Zephyr W vs DC Power W Statistics & Analysis

Spokane Zephyr W

May 10, 2026 - 02:30

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

DC Power W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Spokane Zephyr W Spokane Zephyr W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1619670

Closing Odds 2.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Spokane Zephyr W win · Spokane Zephyr W 1–0 DC Power W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Spokane Zephyr W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 4.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Spokane Zephyr W (1X2)	41.8	37.1	+4.7
Draw (1X2)	25.7	30.1	-4.4
DC Power W (1X2)	32.6	32.9	-0.3
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	45.9	+4.7
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	54.1	-4.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.9%. The difference — about 4.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Spokane Zephyr W (1X2)	2.44	2.44
Draw (1X2)	3.01	3.01
DC Power W (1X2)	2.75	2.75
Over 2.5 goals	2.03	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	1.72	1.72

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: USL Super League
Fixture: Spokane Zephyr W vs DC Power W
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Spokane Zephyr W 1.45 — DC Power W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 50.6% · Implied: 47.8% · Probability edge: +2.8 pts · Est. EV: +2.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 43.6% · No 56.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Super League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lexington W	28	14	11	3	53
2	Sporting JAX	28	16	5	7	53
3	Carolina Ascent W	28	15	6	7	51
4	Dallas Trinity W	28	11	7	10	40
5	Spokane Zephyr W	28	10	9	9	39
6	DC Power W	28	8	9	11	33
7	Brooklyn W	28	6	8	14	26
8	Tampa Bay Sun W	28	5	9	14	24
9	Fort Lauderdale United W	28	5	8	15	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting JAX	28	54	32	+22	53
2	Lexington W	28	50	24	+26	53
3	Carolina Ascent W	28	39	27	+12	51
4	Dallas Trinity W	28	36	40	-4	40
5	Spokane Zephyr W	28	34	28	+6	39
6	DC Power W	28	34	32	+2	33
7	Brooklyn W	28	31	44	-13	26
8	Fort Lauderdale United W	28	30	62	-32	23
9	Tampa Bay Sun W	28	27	46	-19	24