Tampa Bay Sun W vs Dallas Trinity W Statistics & Analysis

Tampa Bay Sun W

May 09, 2026 - 23:30

0 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

Dallas Trinity W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Tampa Bay Sun W Dallas Trinity W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 05:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1557113

Closing Odds 2.54

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Dallas Trinity W win · Tampa Bay Sun W 0–2 Dallas Trinity W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2) by about 6.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2)	41.8	35.6	+6.1
Draw (1X2)	25.7	29.3	-3.6
Dallas Trinity W (1X2)	32.6	35.1	-2.5
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	50.0	+0.6
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	50.0	-0.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.6%. The difference — about 6.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Tampa Bay Sun W (1X2)	2.54	2.54
Draw (1X2)	3.09	3.09
Dallas Trinity W (1X2)	2.58	2.58
Over 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL Super League
Fixture: Tampa Bay Sun W vs Dallas Trinity W
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Tampa Bay Sun W 1.45 — Dallas Trinity W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

USL Super League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lexington W	28	14	11	3	53
2	Sporting JAX	28	16	5	7	53
3	Carolina Ascent W	28	15	6	7	51
4	Dallas Trinity W	28	11	7	10	40
5	Spokane Zephyr W	28	10	9	9	39
6	DC Power W	28	8	9	11	33
7	Brooklyn W	28	6	8	14	26
8	Tampa Bay Sun W	28	5	9	14	24
9	Fort Lauderdale United W	28	5	8	15	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting JAX	28	54	32	+22	53
2	Lexington W	28	50	24	+26	53
3	Carolina Ascent W	28	39	27	+12	51
4	Dallas Trinity W	28	36	40	-4	40
5	Spokane Zephyr W	28	34	28	+6	39
6	DC Power W	28	34	32	+2	33
7	Brooklyn W	28	31	44	-13	26
8	Fort Lauderdale United W	28	30	62	-32	23
9	Tampa Bay Sun W	28	27	46	-19	24