Statistics / Football / Egypt. Second League / Asyut Petrol vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Asyut Petrol vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Statistics & Analysis

Asyut Petrol Asyut Petrol
May 14, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Asyut Petrol Asyut Petrol ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1450793

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Asyut Petrol win · Asyut Petrol 1–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Asyut Petrol (1X2), Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 20.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Asyut Petrol (1X2) 41.8 38.7 +3.1
Draw (1X2) 25.7 42.3 -16.7
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (1X2) 32.6 19.0 +13.6
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 29.9 +20.7
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 70.1 -20.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.9%. The difference — about 20.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Asyut Petrol (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.1 2.1 0.0
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (1X2) 4.68 4.68 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.05 3.05 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.3 1.3 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Asyut Petrol vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-14 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Asyut Petrol 1.45 — Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 28.0% · Probability edge: +22.6 pts · Est. EV: +69.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.4% · No 55.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Olympic El Qanah 34 21 9 4 72
2 Asyut Petrol 34 16 12 6 60
3 Abu Qair Semad 34 15 13 6 58
4 Masar 34 15 10 9 55
5 Proxy 34 13 16 5 55
6 La Viena FC 34 14 12 8 54
7 Itesalat 34 11 13 10 46
8 El Seka El Hadid 34 12 10 12 46
9 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 34 11 11 12 44
10 El Mansura 34 9 17 8 44
11 Tersana 34 8 16 10 40
12 Dayrout 34 10 13 11 43
13 El Dakhleya 34 10 10 14 40
14 El Entag EL Harby 34 10 9 15 39
15 Tanta SC 34 5 18 11 33
16 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 34 7 11 16 32
17 Aswan Sc 34 5 10 19 25
18 Raya Ghazl 34 4 10 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Olympic El Qanah 34 53 19 +34 72
2 Masar 34 47 29 +18 55
3 Asyut Petrol 34 42 27 +15 60
4 Proxy 34 41 31 +10 55
5 Abu Qair Semad 34 40 25 +15 58
6 La Viena FC 34 38 23 +15 54
7 El Entag EL Harby 34 38 48 -10 39
8 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 34 34 38 -4 32
9 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 34 31 29 +2 44
10 Tersana 34 31 32 -1 40
11 El Dakhleya 34 31 43 -12 40
12 Itesalat 34 30 34 -4 46
13 El Mansura 34 28 27 +1 44
14 El Seka El Hadid 34 28 33 -5 46
15 Tanta SC 34 27 36 -9 33
16 Dayrout 34 23 30 -7 43
17 Raya Ghazl 34 20 51 -31 22
18 Aswan Sc 34 15 42 -27 25
Second League Egypt. Second League Predictions