Harkemase Boys vs Sportlust '46 Statistics & Analysis

Harkemase Boys

May 23, 2026 - 13:30

4 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Sportlust '46

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Harkemase Boys Harkemase Boys ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1623096

Closing Odds 3.39

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Harkemase Boys win · Harkemase Boys 4–1 Sportlust '46

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Harkemase Boys (1X2)	41.8	41.2	+0.5
Draw (1X2)	25.7	26.5	-0.9
Sportlust '46 (1X2)	32.6	32.2	+0.3
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	59.7	-9.1
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	40.3	+9.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.3%. The difference — about 9.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Harkemase Boys (1X2)	2.18	2.18
Draw (1X2)	3.39	3.39
Sportlust '46 (1X2)	2.79	2.79
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.27	2.27

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Derde Divisie - Saturday
Fixture: Harkemase Boys vs Sportlust '46
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Harkemase Boys 1.45 — Sportlust '46 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 38.6% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +29.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 61.7% · No 38.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie - Saturday — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	ROHDA Raalte	33	20	7	6	67
2	ADO '20	33	17	9	7	60
3	DVS 33 Ermelo	33	16	11	6	59
4	Sparta Nijkerk	33	18	4	11	58
5	SC Genemuiden	33	17	5	11	56
6	Staphorst	33	16	3	14	51
7	Eemdijk	33	14	8	11	50
8	Dovo	33	14	7	12	49
9	Harkemase Boys	33	13	10	10	49
10	VV Scherpenzeel	33	14	6	13	48
11	Sportlust '46	33	14	5	14	47
12	Hoogeveen	33	13	6	14	45
13	Hercules	33	13	4	16	43
14	Huizen	33	11	7	15	40
15	TEC	33	12	3	18	39
16	Excelsior '31	33	11	4	18	37
17	URK	33	9	6	18	33
18	Hsc 21	33	1	3	29	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sparta Nijkerk	33	81	42	+39	58
2	Eemdijk	33	67	56	+11	50
3	ROHDA Raalte	33	62	34	+28	67
4	Staphorst	33	61	52	+9	51
5	SC Genemuiden	33	60	50	+10	56
6	URK	33	60	94	-34	33
7	DVS 33 Ermelo	33	58	39	+19	59
8	VV Scherpenzeel	33	55	45	+10	48
9	Sportlust '46	33	53	48	+5	47
10	Hercules	33	53	57	-4	43
11	Dovo	33	52	43	+9	49
12	Harkemase Boys	33	52	43	+9	49
13	Hoogeveen	33	52	63	-11	45
14	Huizen	33	51	62	-11	40
15	TEC	33	48	64	-16	39
16	Excelsior '31	33	47	56	-9	37
17	ADO '20	33	46	35	+11	60
18	Hsc 21	33	30	105	-75	6