Hoogeveen vs Eemdijk Statistics & Analysis

Hoogeveen

May 09, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Eemdijk

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hoogeveen Hoogeveen ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Derde Divisie - Saturday
Fixture: Hoogeveen vs Eemdijk
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Hoogeveen 1.45 — Eemdijk 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 71.5% · Implied: 60.8% · Probability edge: +10.7 pts · Est. EV: +9.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 69.4% · No 30.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: Over 2.5 goals.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Derde Divisie - Saturday — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	ROHDA Raalte	32	20	7	5	67
2	ADO '20	32	16	9	7	57
3	DVS 33 Ermelo	32	15	11	6	56
4	SC Genemuiden	32	17	5	10	56
5	Sparta Nijkerk	32	17	4	11	55
6	Staphorst	32	16	3	13	51
7	Eemdijk	32	14	8	10	50
8	Harkemase Boys	32	13	10	9	49
9	VV Scherpenzeel	32	14	6	12	48
10	Sportlust '46	32	14	5	13	47
11	Dovo	32	13	7	12	46
12	Hoogeveen	32	13	6	13	45
13	Hercules	32	12	4	16	40
14	Huizen	32	10	7	15	37
15	TEC	32	11	3	18	36
16	Excelsior '31	32	10	4	18	34
17	URK	32	8	6	18	30
18	Hsc 21	32	1	3	28	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sparta Nijkerk	32	79	42	+37	55
2	Eemdijk	32	65	53	+12	50
3	ROHDA Raalte	32	62	33	+29	67
4	Staphorst	32	60	49	+11	51
5	URK	32	59	94	-35	30
6	SC Genemuiden	32	58	44	+14	56
7	DVS 33 Ermelo	32	55	37	+18	56
8	VV Scherpenzeel	32	55	44	+11	48
9	Sportlust '46	32	53	46	+7	47
10	Harkemase Boys	32	52	39	+13	49
11	Hoogeveen	32	52	62	-10	45
12	Huizen	32	50	62	-12	37
13	Hercules	32	49	57	-8	40
14	TEC	32	47	64	-17	36
15	Dovo	32	46	41	+5	46
16	ADO '20	32	45	35	+10	57
17	Excelsior '31	32	44	55	-11	34
18	Hsc 21	32	30	104	-74	6