Crystal Palace U18 vs Arsenal U18 Statistics & Analysis

Crystal Palace U18

May 16, 2026 - 10:00

2 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 70%

Arsenal U18

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Crystal Palace U18 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-0 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660744

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Crystal Palace U18 2–2 Arsenal U18

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: U18 Premier League - South
Fixture: Crystal Palace U18 vs Arsenal U18
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Crystal Palace U18 1.45 — Arsenal U18 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 23.8% · Over 2.5 76.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.2% · No 33.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 66.2% · No 33.8%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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