Ipswich Town U18 vs Aston Villa U18 Statistics & Analysis

Ipswich Town U18

May 09, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.45

8 1.25

xG Accuracy: 10%

Aston Villa U18

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (11 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 draw Aston Villa U18 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 1-4 3-8 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 20:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3577436

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Aston Villa U18 win · Ipswich Town U18 3–8 Aston Villa U18

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: U18 Premier League - South
Fixture: Ipswich Town U18 vs Aston Villa U18
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Ipswich Town U18 1.45 — Aston Villa U18 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 16.8% · Over 2.5 83.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 67.7% · No 32.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 67.7% · No 32.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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