Derby County U18 vs Liverpool U18 Statistics & Analysis

Derby County U18

May 08, 2026 - 18:00

4 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 31%

Liverpool U18

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Derby County U18 Derby County U18 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-2, 1-2, 2-3, 1-3, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 16:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2049919

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Derby County U18 win · Derby County U18 4–3 Liverpool U18

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: U18 Premier League - North
Fixture: Derby County U18 vs Liverpool U18
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Derby County U18 1.45 — Liverpool U18 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 13.8% · Over 2.5 86.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.6% · No 34.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 65.6% · No 34.4%
Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (6.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Derby County U18 & Liverpool U18!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics