Burnley U18 vs Leeds United U18 Statistics & Analysis

Burnley U18

May 09, 2026 - 10:00

7 1.45

4 1.25

xG Accuracy: 10%

Leeds United U18

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (11 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Burnley U18 Burnley U18 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-2, 1-2, 2-1, 1-1, 2-3 7-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1615683

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Burnley U18 win · Burnley U18 7–4 Leeds United U18

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: U18 Premier League - North
Fixture: Burnley U18 vs Leeds United U18
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Burnley U18 1.45 — Leeds United U18 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 20.4% · Over 2.5 79.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.7% · No 34.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 65.7% · No 34.3%
Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (7.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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