Statistics / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Damac vs Al-Fayha

Damac vs Al-Fayha Statistics & Analysis

Damac Damac
May 15, 2026 - 16:15
3 0.88
0 1.07
xG Accuracy: 42%
Al-Fayha Al-Fayha
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al-Fayha Damac ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1484828

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds 2.65
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Damac win · Damac 3–0 Al-Fayha
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 37.7%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Al-Fayha (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al-Fayha (1X2) by about 18.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Damac (1X2) 27.7 54.5 -26.9
Draw (1X2) 34.6 25.7 +8.9
Al-Fayha (1X2) 37.7 19.8 +18.0
Over 2.5 goals 31.0 44.8 -13.8
Under 2.5 goals 69.0 55.2 +13.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.7% on Al-Fayha (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.8%. The difference — about 18.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Damac (1X2) 1.71 1.71 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.63 3.63 0.0
Al-Fayha (1X2) 4.72 4.72 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.11 2.11 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fayha
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-13 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.7% · Draw 34.6% · Away 37.7%
  • xG (showing): Damac 0.88 — Al-Fayha 1.07 (total xG ≈ 1.95)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 69.0% · Implied: 53.5% · Probability edge: +15.5 pts · Est. EV: +26.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.2% · No 59.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (15.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 28 2 4 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 25 9 0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 25 6 3 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 23 8 3 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 16 7 11 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 53
7 Al-Ettifaq 34 14 8 12 50
8 NEOM 34 12 9 13 45
9 Al-Hazm 34 11 9 14 42
10 Al-Fayha 34 10 8 16 38
11 Al-Fateh 34 9 10 15 37
12 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 10 7 17 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 29
17 Al Akhdoud 34 5 5 24 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 91 28 +63 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 85 27 +58 84
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 83 34 +49 77
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 71 25 +46 81
5 Al Taawon 34 59 46 +13 53
6 Al-Ittihad FC 34 55 48 +7 55
7 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 54 62 -8 37
8 Al-Ettifaq 34 51 55 -4 50
9 Al Shabab 34 44 57 -13 35
10 NEOM 34 43 48 -5 45
11 Al-Fayha 34 41 54 -13 38
12 Al-Fateh 34 41 55 -14 37
13 Al Kholood 34 39 61 -22 33
14 Al-Hazm 34 38 57 -19 42
15 Al Riyadh 34 35 63 -28 30
16 Damac 34 32 55 -23 29
17 Al Najma 34 32 76 -44 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 27 70 -43 20
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Nassr 34 69.8 26.0 +43.8 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 68.9 25.9 +43.0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 62.4 26.7 +35.7 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 62.9 35.2 +27.7 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 49.5 41.2 +8.3 55
6 NEOM 34 45.8 39.4 +6.4 45
7 Al Shabab 34 44.1 44.7 -0.6 35
8 Al Taawon 34 42.0 44.7 -2.7 53
9 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 42.6 46.3 -3.7 37
10 Al-Fateh 34 42.5 49.6 -7.1 37
11 Al Riyadh 34 41.4 50.5 -9.1 30
12 Al-Fayha 34 33.3 43.4 -10.1 38
13 Al-Hazm 34 34.1 47.4 -13.3 42
14 Damac 34 25.1 38.5 -13.4 29
15 Al-Ettifaq 34 39.0 56.5 -17.5 50
16 Al Kholood 34 33.2 51.5 -18.3 33
17 Al Najma 34 28.1 61.0 -32.9 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 26.8 62.8 -36.0 20