Taipower vs Ming Chuan University Statistics & Analysis

Taipower

May 17, 2026 - 08:00

3 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Ming Chuan University

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Taipower Taipower ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 08:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2341224

Closing Odds 1.31

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Taipower win · Taipower 3–0 Ming Chuan University

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ming Chuan University (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ming Chuan University (1X2) by about 19.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Taipower (1X2)	41.8	69.2	-27.5
Draw (1X2)	25.7	17.8	+7.9
Ming Chuan University (1X2)	32.6	13.0	+19.5
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	66.0	-15.4
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	34.0	+15.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Ming Chuan University (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.0%. The difference — about 19.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Taipower (1X2)	1.31	1.31
Draw (1X2)	5.11	5.11
Ming Chuan University (1X2)	6.96	6.96
Over 2.5 goals	1.4	1.4
Under 2.5 goals	2.72	2.72

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Taiwan Football Premier League
Fixture: Taipower vs Ming Chuan University
Kickoff: 2026-05-17 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Taipower 1.45 — Ming Chuan University 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 33.0% · Over 2.5 67.0%); BTTS No (Yes 36.0% · No 64.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 36.0% · No 64.0%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Taiwan Football Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tainan City	21	12	5	4	41
2	Hang Yuen	21	13	2	6	41
3	AC Taipei	21	11	6	4	39
4	Taichung Futuro	21	12	1	8	37
5	Taichung Rock FC	21	8	6	7	30
6	Tatung	21	6	6	9	24
7	Taipower	21	5	5	11	20
8	Ming Chuan University	21	1	1	19	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tainan City	21	44	21	+23	41
2	Taichung Futuro	21	36	22	+14	37
3	Hang Yuen	21	35	15	+20	41
4	AC Taipei	21	29	22	+7	39
5	Taichung Rock FC	21	28	30	-2	30
6	Tatung	21	27	28	-1	24
7	Taipower	21	27	33	-6	20
8	Ming Chuan University	21	14	69	-55	4