Taipower vs Taichung Futuro Statistics & Analysis

Taipower

May 10, 2026 - 11:00

1 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 72%

Taichung Futuro

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Taipower Taichung Futuro ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 12:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2865440

Closing Odds 1.68

AI Fair Odds 2.39

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Taichung Futuro win · Taipower 1–2 Taichung Futuro

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 41.8%
Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Taipower (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Taipower (1X2) by about 21.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Taipower (1X2)	41.8	20.2	+21.6
Draw (1X2)	25.7	25.1	+0.5
Taichung Futuro (1X2)	32.6	54.6	-22.1
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	52.0	-1.4
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	48.0	+1.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Taipower (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.2%. The difference — about 21.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Taipower (1X2)	4.54	4.54
Draw (1X2)	3.65	3.65
Taichung Futuro (1X2)	1.68	1.68
Over 2.5 goals	1.82	1.82
Under 2.5 goals	1.97	1.97

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Taiwan Football Premier League
Fixture: Taipower vs Taichung Futuro
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Taipower 1.45 — Taichung Futuro 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Taipower
Model: 41.8% · Implied: 20.2% · Probability edge: +21.6 pts · Est. EV: +5.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 51.9% · No 48.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Taiwan Football Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tainan City	21	12	5	4	41
2	Hang Yuen	21	13	2	6	41
3	AC Taipei	21	11	6	4	39
4	Taichung Futuro	21	12	1	8	37
5	Taichung Rock FC	21	8	6	7	30
6	Tatung	21	6	6	9	24
7	Taipower	21	5	5	11	20
8	Ming Chuan University	21	1	1	19	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tainan City	21	44	21	+23	41
2	Taichung Futuro	21	36	22	+14	37
3	Hang Yuen	21	35	15	+20	41
4	AC Taipei	21	29	22	+7	39
5	Taichung Rock FC	21	28	30	-2	30
6	Tatung	21	27	28	-1	24
7	Taipower	21	27	33	-6	20
8	Ming Chuan University	21	14	69	-55	4