Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Navalcarnero vs Fuenlabrada

Navalcarnero vs Fuenlabrada Statistics & Analysis

Navalcarnero Navalcarnero
May 03, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Fuenlabrada Fuenlabrada
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 10:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1697172

Closing Odds 3.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Navalcarnero win · Navalcarnero 3–1 Fuenlabrada
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fuenlabrada (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fuenlabrada (1X2) by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Navalcarnero (1X2) 41.8 43.8 -2.0
Draw (1X2) 25.7 28.9 -3.3
Fuenlabrada (1X2) 32.6 27.3 +5.3
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 47.6 +3.0
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 52.4 -3.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Fuenlabrada (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.3%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Navalcarnero (1X2) 2.03 2.03 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.07 3.07 0.0
Fuenlabrada (1X2) 3.26 3.26 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.77 1.77 0.0

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rayo Majadahonda 34 20 10 4 70
2 SS Reyes 34 21 7 6 70
3 Conquense 34 16 12 6 60
4 Getafe II 34 16 9 9 57
5 CD Coria 34 16 9 9 57
6 RSD Alcalá 34 14 9 11 51
7 Tenerife II 34 15 5 14 50
8 Orihuela 34 12 10 12 46
9 Intercity 34 11 10 13 43
10 Navalcarnero 34 11 10 13 43
11 Las Palmas II 34 11 9 14 42
12 Elche II 34 10 11 13 41
13 Real Madrid III 34 11 7 16 40
14 Quintanar del Rey 34 11 6 17 39
15 Fuenlabrada 34 9 10 15 37
16 Colonia Moscardó 34 9 7 18 34
17 Socuéllamos 34 7 10 17 31
18 Rayo Vallecano II 34 9 3 22 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tenerife II 34 57 53 +4 50
2 Getafe II 34 55 35 +20 57
3 Rayo Majadahonda 34 52 23 +29 70
4 SS Reyes 34 51 27 +24 70
5 Elche II 34 51 56 -5 41
6 CD Coria 34 50 38 +12 57
7 Orihuela 34 45 43 +2 46
8 Conquense 34 42 30 +12 60
9 RSD Alcalá 34 42 39 +3 51
10 Intercity 34 42 45 -3 43
11 Las Palmas II 34 42 45 -3 42
12 Real Madrid III 34 42 45 -3 40
13 Navalcarnero 34 40 42 -2 43
14 Colonia Moscardó 34 37 57 -20 34
15 Quintanar del Rey 34 36 43 -7 39
16 Fuenlabrada 34 35 44 -9 37
17 Socuéllamos 34 34 55 -21 31
18 Rayo Vallecano II 34 30 63 -33 30
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions