Statistics / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 / Freienbach vs Baden

Freienbach vs Baden Statistics & Analysis

Freienbach Freienbach
May 20, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Baden Baden
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Freienbach Freienbach ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 11:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3258778

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Freienbach win · Freienbach 3–0 Baden
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Freienbach (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Freienbach (1X2) 41.8 34.7 +7.1
Draw (1X2) 25.7 24.4 +1.2
Baden (1X2) 32.6 40.9 -8.3
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 64.1 -13.5
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 35.9 +13.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.9%. The difference — about 13.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Freienbach (1X2) 2.64 2.64 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Baden (1X2) 2.24 2.24 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.44 1.44 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.57 2.57 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3
  • Fixture: Freienbach vs Baden
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Freienbach 1.45 — Baden 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 36.6% · Probability edge: +12.8 pts · Est. EV: +27.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 70.2% · No 29.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 YF Juventus 30 23 4 3 73
2 Tuggen 30 19 4 7 61
3 Taverne 30 18 6 6 60
4 Wettswil-Bonstetten 30 18 5 7 59
5 Dietikon 30 12 8 10 44
6 Freienbach 30 12 7 11 43
7 Baden 30 11 8 11 41
8 Mendrisio 30 11 7 12 40
9 Winterthur II 30 10 9 11 39
10 Collina d'Oro 30 10 9 11 39
11 Kosova 30 9 9 12 36
12 St. Gallen II 30 9 5 16 35
13 Eschen / Mauren 30 7 11 12 32
14 Widnau 30 7 6 17 27
15 Höngg 30 6 7 17 25
16 SV Schaffhausen 30 3 5 22 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 YF Juventus 30 81 26 +55 73
2 Wettswil-Bonstetten 30 74 36 +38 59
3 Tuggen 30 74 52 +22 61
4 Winterthur II 30 61 53 +8 39
5 Baden 30 58 52 +6 41
6 Dietikon 30 54 47 +7 44
7 Kosova 30 54 55 -1 36
8 Taverne 30 53 31 +22 60
9 Freienbach 30 53 53 0 43
10 St. Gallen II 30 47 66 -19 35
11 Collina d'Oro 30 46 44 +2 39
12 Mendrisio 30 42 44 -2 40
13 Eschen / Mauren 30 35 51 -16 32
14 Widnau 30 34 63 -29 27
15 Höngg 30 32 62 -30 25
16 SV Schaffhausen 30 24 87 -63 14
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Predictions