Statistics / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 / Meyrin vs Chênois

Meyrin vs Chênois Statistics & Analysis

Meyrin Meyrin
May 30, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Chênois Chênois
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Meyrin Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 23:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3326531

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Meyrin 2–2 Chênois
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Meyrin (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Meyrin (1X2) by about 20.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Meyrin (1X2) 41.8 21.3 +20.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 21.8 +3.9
Chênois (1X2) 32.6 56.9 -24.4
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 60.9 -10.3
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 39.1 +10.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Meyrin (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.3%. The difference — about 20.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Meyrin (1X2) 4.2 4.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.1 4.1 0.0
Chênois (1X2) 1.57 1.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 1
  • Fixture: Meyrin vs Chênois
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Meyrin 1.45 — Chênois 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 34.0% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +41.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.4% · No 32.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Servette II 30 19 4 7 61
2 Amical Saint-Prex 30 18 3 9 57
3 Chênois 30 14 11 5 53
4 Monthey 30 14 8 8 50
5 Prishtina Bern 30 15 5 10 50
6 Portalban / Gletterens 30 11 10 9 43
7 Lancy 30 12 5 13 41
8 Echallens 30 12 4 14 40
9 Naters 30 10 8 12 38
10 Stade Payerne 30 10 8 12 38
11 Meyrin 30 11 4 15 37
12 Coffrane 30 9 8 13 35
13 Sion II 30 9 7 14 34
14 La Chaux-de-Fonds 30 9 4 17 31
15 Martigny Sports 30 7 9 14 30
16 La Sarraz-Eclépens 30 7 8 15 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Servette II 30 82 33 +49 61
2 Monthey 30 63 49 +14 50
3 Amical Saint-Prex 30 62 44 +18 57
4 Prishtina Bern 30 57 46 +11 50
5 Naters 30 57 61 -4 38
6 Chênois 30 56 41 +15 53
7 Echallens 30 52 61 -9 40
8 Lancy 30 50 51 -1 41
9 Meyrin 30 46 52 -6 37
10 Coffrane 30 45 59 -14 35
11 Sion II 30 44 49 -5 34
12 La Sarraz-Eclépens 30 44 68 -24 29
13 Martigny Sports 30 43 59 -16 30
14 La Chaux-de-Fonds 30 43 61 -18 31
15 Stade Payerne 30 41 48 -7 38
16 Portalban / Gletterens 30 40 43 -3 43
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Predictions