Statistics / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 / FC Wohlen vs Courtételle

FC Wohlen vs Courtételle Statistics & Analysis

FC Wohlen FC Wohlen
May 09, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Courtételle Courtételle
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Wohlen Courtételle ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2370592

Closing Odds 2.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Courtételle win · FC Wohlen 0–1 Courtételle
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FC Wohlen (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FC Wohlen (1X2) by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Wohlen (1X2) 41.8 30.9 +10.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.6 -0.9
Courtételle (1X2) 32.6 42.5 -10.0
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 52.4 -1.8
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 47.6 +1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on FC Wohlen (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.9%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Wohlen (1X2) 2.93 2.93 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.41 3.41 0.0
Courtételle (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.79 1.79 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.97 1.97 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 2
  • Fixture: FC Wohlen vs Courtételle
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): FC Wohlen 1.45 — Courtételle 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Grasshopper II 30 19 3 8 60
2 Langenthal 30 17 7 6 58
3 Courtételle 30 16 8 6 56
4 Muttenz 30 14 9 7 51
5 Concordia Basel 30 13 6 11 45
6 Solothurn 30 13 6 11 45
7 FC Wohlen 30 12 7 11 43
8 Schötz 30 12 6 12 42
9 Black Stars 30 12 5 13 41
10 Münsingen 30 10 8 12 38
11 Zug 30 9 10 11 37
12 Bassecourt 30 9 7 14 34
13 Buochs 30 10 4 16 34
14 Delémont 30 7 10 13 31
15 Besa Biel/Bienne 30 8 4 18 28
16 Old Boys 30 7 4 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Grasshopper II 30 69 35 +34 60
2 Muttenz 30 64 46 +18 51
3 Langenthal 30 63 37 +26 58
4 Schötz 30 63 65 -2 42
5 Concordia Basel 30 62 50 +12 45
6 Black Stars 30 54 67 -13 41
7 Courtételle 30 53 33 +20 56
8 Solothurn 30 53 47 +6 45
9 Delémont 30 47 55 -8 31
10 Old Boys 30 47 73 -26 25
11 FC Wohlen 30 44 42 +2 43
12 Münsingen 30 44 47 -3 38
13 Zug 30 41 51 -10 37
14 Besa Biel/Bienne 30 39 72 -33 28
15 Bassecourt 30 38 47 -9 34
16 Buochs 30 37 51 -14 34
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 Predictions