Statistics / Football / South-Africa. Premier Soccer League / Magesi vs Orbit College

Magesi vs Orbit College Statistics & Analysis

Magesi Magesi
May 05, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.24
2 0.61
xG Accuracy: 64%
Orbit College Orbit College
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Magesi Orbit College ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1468745

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Orbit College win · Magesi 1–2 Orbit College
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Magesi (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Magesi (1X2) by about 2.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Magesi (1X2) 50.1 47.3 +2.8
Draw (1X2) 33.2 33.5 -0.3
Orbit College (1X2) 16.8 19.2 -2.5
Over 2.5 goals 28.3 29.4 -1.1
Under 2.5 goals 71.7 70.6 +1.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.1% on Magesi (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 47.3%. The difference — about 2.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Magesi (1X2) 2.01 2.01 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.84 2.84 0.0
Orbit College (1X2) 4.95 4.95 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.22 3.22 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.34 1.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier Soccer League
  • Fixture: Magesi vs Orbit College
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-05 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.1% · Draw 33.2% · Away 16.8%
  • xG (showing): Magesi 1.24 — Orbit College 0.61 (total xG ≈ 1.85)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 66.0% · Implied: 61.9% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 34.0% · No 66.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (19.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier Soccer League Premier Soccer League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Orlando Pirates 30 21 6 3 69
2 Mamelodi Sundowns 30 20 8 2 68
3 Kaizer Chiefs 30 15 9 6 54
4 Amazulu 30 13 8 9 47
5 Sekhukhune United 30 11 11 8 44
6 Golden Arrows 30 11 8 11 41
7 Polokwane City 30 9 13 8 40
8 Durban City 30 10 9 11 39
9 Stellenbosch 30 9 10 11 37
10 Siwelele 30 8 13 9 37
11 Richards Bay 30 7 13 10 34
12 TS Galaxy 30 8 8 14 32
13 Chippa United 30 6 10 14 28
14 Marumo Gallants 30 4 13 13 25
15 Magesi 30 5 9 16 24
16 Orbit College 30 6 6 18 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Orlando Pirates 30 58 12 +46 69
2 Mamelodi Sundowns 30 57 21 +36 68
3 Golden Arrows 30 34 33 +1 41
4 Kaizer Chiefs 30 33 19 +14 54
5 Sekhukhune United 30 32 27 +5 44
6 Amazulu 30 32 28 +4 47
7 TS Galaxy 30 30 38 -8 32
8 Stellenbosch 30 26 30 -4 37
9 Durban City 30 25 26 -1 39
10 Siwelele 30 24 28 -4 37
11 Magesi 30 24 43 -19 24
12 Chippa United 30 24 44 -20 28
13 Richards Bay 30 23 30 -7 34
14 Polokwane City 30 21 21 0 40
15 Marumo Gallants 30 21 38 -17 25
16 Orbit College 30 21 47 -26 24
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kaizer Chiefs 30 20.7 10.5 +10.2 54
2 Orlando Pirates 30 16.4 7.7 +8.7 69
3 Mamelodi Sundowns 30 19.2 11.2 +8.0 68
4 Magesi 30 16.1 13.2 +2.9 24
5 Sekhukhune United 30 16.9 14.2 +2.7 44
6 Durban City 30 15.7 13.6 +2.1 39
7 Polokwane City 30 14.0 12.2 +1.8 40
8 Stellenbosch 30 15.0 14.6 +0.4 37
9 Richards Bay 30 14.7 15.4 -0.7 34
10 Siwelele 30 14.2 15.8 -1.6 37
11 Marumo Gallants 30 11.8 15.6 -3.8 25
12 TS Galaxy 30 16.6 21.2 -4.6 32
13 Golden Arrows 30 15.2 20.4 -5.2 41
14 Amazulu 30 12.8 18.1 -5.3 47
15 Orbit College 30 12.2 19.1 -6.9 24
16 Chippa United 30 11.4 20.4 -9.0 28