Statistics / Football / France. National 3 - Group F / Chalon-sur-Saône vs Thaon

Chalon-sur-Saône vs Thaon Statistics & Analysis

Chalon-sur-Saône Chalon-sur-Saône
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Thaon Thaon
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chalon-sur-Saône Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2598358

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Chalon-sur-Saône 2–2 Thaon
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 3 - Group F
  • Fixture: Chalon-sur-Saône vs Thaon
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Chalon-sur-Saône 1.45 — Thaon 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.3% · Over 2.5 57.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.7% · No 37.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.7% · No 37.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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National 3 - Group F National 3 - Group F — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Troyes II 26 15 6 5 51
2 Thonon Évian 26 13 7 6 46
3 Chalon 26 12 9 5 45
4 Racing Besançon 26 11 10 5 43
5 Jura Dolois 26 12 6 8 42
6 Torcy 26 10 7 9 37
7 Pontarlier 26 9 9 8 36
8 Ivry 26 9 8 9 35
9 Thaon 26 9 5 12 32
10 Belfort 26 7 9 10 30
11 Mulhouse 26 8 6 12 30
12 Strasbourg II 26 7 7 12 28
13 Sochaux II 26 7 6 13 27
14 Besançon 26 2 7 17 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Troyes II 26 54 32 +22 51
2 Thaon 26 44 42 +2 32
3 Thonon Évian 26 43 31 +12 46
4 Chalon 26 41 29 +12 45
5 Racing Besançon 26 38 24 +14 43
6 Pontarlier 26 38 31 +7 36
7 Jura Dolois 26 37 31 +6 42
8 Belfort 26 37 34 +3 30
9 Sochaux II 26 37 44 -7 27
10 Mulhouse 26 35 46 -11 30
11 Torcy 26 32 30 +2 37
12 Strasbourg II 26 28 48 -20 28
13 Ivry 26 26 29 -3 35
14 Besançon 26 18 57 -39 13