Statistics / Football / France. National 3 - Group B / Nantes II vs Le Poiré sur Vie

Nantes II vs Le Poiré sur Vie Statistics & Analysis

Nantes II Nantes II
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Le Poiré sur Vie Le Poiré sur Vie
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Nantes II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3207792

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nantes II win · Nantes II 2–0 Le Poiré sur Vie
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 3 - Group B
  • Fixture: Nantes II vs Le Poiré sur Vie
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Nantes II 1.45 — Le Poiré sur Vie 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 69.3% · No 30.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.3% · No 30.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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National 3 - Group B National 3 - Group B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Le Poiré sur Vie 26 17 6 3 57
2 Ouest Tourangeau 26 17 5 4 56
3 Nantes II 26 15 6 5 51
4 Challans 26 12 10 4 46
5 La Châtaigneraie 26 10 9 7 39
6 Vendée Fontenay 26 9 5 12 32
7 Les Sables 26 9 5 12 32
8 Panazol 26 11 3 12 32
9 Châteauroux II 26 9 4 13 31
10 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 26 8 6 12 30
11 USSA Vertou 26 7 7 12 28
11 Les Sables-d'Olonne 10 2 4 4 10
12 Chauvigny 26 4 12 10 24
13 Angers SCO II 26 4 8 14 20
14 Châtellerault 26 4 6 16 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Challans 26 52 26 +26 46
2 Ouest Tourangeau 26 49 18 +31 56
3 Le Poiré sur Vie 26 45 24 +21 57
4 La Châtaigneraie 26 40 43 -3 39
5 Les Sables 26 39 40 -1 32
6 Nantes II 26 37 20 +17 51
7 Châteauroux II 26 37 40 -3 31
8 Panazol 26 36 35 +1 32
9 USSA Vertou 26 32 38 -6 28
10 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 26 32 44 -12 30
11 Vendée Fontenay 26 30 38 -8 32
12 Chauvigny 26 30 42 -12 24
13 Angers SCO II 26 23 37 -14 20
14 Châtellerault 26 21 58 -37 18
15 Les Sables-d'Olonne 10 14 16 -2 10