Statistics / Football / France. National 3 - Group A / Lège-Cap-Ferret vs Blagnac

Lège-Cap-Ferret vs Blagnac Statistics & Analysis

Lège-Cap-Ferret Lège-Cap-Ferret
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Blagnac Blagnac
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lège-Cap-Ferret Blagnac ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 12:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1702960

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Blagnac win · Lège-Cap-Ferret 1–4 Blagnac
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 3 - Group A
  • Fixture: Lège-Cap-Ferret vs Blagnac
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Lège-Cap-Ferret 1.45 — Blagnac 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.4% · Over 2.5 56.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.4% · No 40.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.4% · No 40.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National 3 - Group A National 3 - Group A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tarbes 26 14 8 4 47
2 Canet Roussillon 26 12 9 5 45
3 Colomiers 26 13 6 7 43
4 Onet-le-Château 26 11 6 9 39
5 Pau II 26 10 7 9 37
6 Anglet Genets 26 12 7 7 37
7 Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 26 9 9 8 36
8 Toulouse II 26 9 6 11 33
9 Castanet 26 8 8 10 32
10 Blagnac 26 8 8 10 29
11 Lège-Cap-Ferret 26 6 10 10 28
12 SAG Cestas 26 6 10 10 28
13 Agde 26 6 6 14 24
14 Alberes Argelès 26 5 6 15 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tarbes 26 52 26 +26 47
2 Colomiers 26 47 42 +5 43
3 Anglet Genets 26 41 28 +13 37
4 Onet-le-Château 26 41 41 0 39
5 Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 26 38 36 +2 36
6 Lège-Cap-Ferret 26 38 53 -15 28
7 Canet Roussillon 26 37 22 +15 45
8 Blagnac 26 35 34 +1 29
9 Pau II 26 32 26 +6 37
10 Toulouse II 26 32 28 +4 33
11 Castanet 26 27 32 -5 32
12 Alberes Argelès 26 24 40 -16 21
13 Agde 26 23 43 -20 24
14 SAG Cestas 26 22 38 -16 28