Lorient II vs Poitiers Statistics & Analysis

Lorient II

May 16, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 82%

Poitiers

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lorient II Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 00:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2099321

Closing Odds 3.57

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Lorient II 1–1 Poitiers

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Poitiers (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Poitiers (1X2) by about 7.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Lorient II (1X2)	41.8	48.5	-6.7
Draw (1X2)	25.7	26.6	-1.0
Poitiers (1X2)	32.6	24.9	+7.7
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	51.2	-0.6
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	48.8	+0.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Poitiers (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.9%. The difference — about 7.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Lorient II (1X2)	1.83	1.83
Draw (1X2)	3.33	3.33
Poitiers (1X2)	3.57	3.57
Over 2.5 goals	1.81	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	1.9	1.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: National 2 - Group A
Fixture: Lorient II vs Poitiers
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Lorient II 1.45 — Poitiers 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS No (Yes 40.4% · No 59.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 40.4% · No 59.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	La Roche VF	30	19	8	3	65
2	Bordeaux	30	19	5	6	62
3	Bayonne	30	17	4	9	55
4	Saint-Malo	30	13	11	6	50
5	Les Herbiers	30	14	7	9	49
6	Angoulême	30	11	10	9	43
7	Dinan Léhon	30	12	5	13	41
8	Avranches	30	10	10	10	40
9	Chauray	30	11	5	14	38
10	Saint-Colomban Locminé	30	9	10	11	37
11	Montlouis	30	7	10	13	31
12	Lorient II	30	9	5	16	31
13	Châteaubriant	30	8	6	16	30
14	Granville	30	6	11	13	29
15	Saumur	30	6	10	14	28
16	Poitiers	30	5	11	14	25

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	La Roche VF	30	61	27	+34	65
2	Bordeaux	30	51	28	+23	62
3	Avranches	30	46	41	+5	40
4	Les Herbiers	30	45	33	+12	49
5	Dinan Léhon	30	44	45	-1	41
6	Saint-Malo	30	43	29	+14	50
7	Bayonne	30	42	27	+15	55
8	Montlouis	30	42	50	-8	31
9	Lorient II	30	38	51	-13	31
10	Saumur	30	37	56	-19	28
11	Chauray	30	35	38	-3	38
12	Angoulême	30	33	36	-3	43
13	Granville	30	32	41	-9	29
14	Saint-Colomban Locminé	30	31	34	-3	37
15	Châteaubriant	30	25	47	-22	30
16	Poitiers	30	21	43	-22	25