Statistics / Football / France. National 2 - Group B / Thionville Lusitanos vs Chambly Thelle FC

Thionville Lusitanos vs Chambly Thelle FC Statistics & Analysis

Thionville Lusitanos Thionville Lusitanos
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Chambly Thelle FC Chambly Thelle FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Thionville Lusitanos Chambly Thelle FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1599608

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Chambly Thelle FC win · Thionville Lusitanos 0–4 Chambly Thelle FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Chambly Thelle FC (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Thionville Lusitanos (1X2) 41.8 45.2 -3.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 23.3 +2.3
Chambly Thelle FC (1X2) 32.6 31.4 +1.2
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 50.8 -0.2
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 49.2 +0.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.3%. The difference — about 2.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Thionville Lusitanos (1X2) 1.95 1.95 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.78 3.78 0.0
Chambly Thelle FC (1X2) 2.81 2.81 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 2 - Group B
  • Fixture: Thionville Lusitanos vs Chambly Thelle FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Thionville Lusitanos 1.45 — Chambly Thelle FC 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group B National 2 - Group B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Thionville Lusitanos 30 18 6 6 60
2 Bourges Foot 18 30 14 10 6 52
3 Haguenau 30 14 9 7 51
4 Feignies-Aulnoye 30 12 10 8 46
5 Furiani-Agliani 30 13 6 11 45
6 St-Pryvé St-Hilaire 30 12 6 12 42
7 Dieppe 30 11 8 11 41
8 Bastia-Borgo 30 11 7 12 40
9 Epinal 30 11 7 12 40
10 Biesheim 30 10 10 10 39
11 Colmar 30 9 11 10 37
12 Beauvais 30 9 11 10 35
13 Wasquehal 30 10 4 16 34
14 Chambly Thelle FC 30 9 10 11 34
15 Chantilly 30 6 9 15 27
16 Blois 30 7 4 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Thionville Lusitanos 30 53 36 +17 60
2 St-Pryvé St-Hilaire 30 48 44 +4 42
3 Furiani-Agliani 30 45 40 +5 45
4 Haguenau 30 43 29 +14 51
5 Feignies-Aulnoye 30 41 24 +17 46
6 Colmar 30 41 43 -2 37
7 Beauvais 30 39 42 -3 35
8 Bourges Foot 18 30 35 24 +11 52
9 Chambly Thelle FC 30 35 35 0 34
10 Bastia-Borgo 30 32 37 -5 40
11 Epinal 30 32 37 -5 40
12 Chantilly 30 32 42 -10 27
13 Dieppe 30 31 36 -5 41
14 Biesheim 30 31 37 -6 39
15 Blois 30 31 47 -16 25
16 Wasquehal 30 28 44 -16 34
National 2 - Group B France. National 2 - Group B Predictions