Haguenau vs Dieppe Statistics & Analysis

Haguenau

May 09, 2026 - 16:00

3 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Dieppe

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Haguenau Haguenau ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1546908

Closing Odds 3.24

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Haguenau win · Haguenau 3–1 Dieppe

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dieppe (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dieppe (1X2) by about 5.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Haguenau (1X2)	41.8	44.0	-2.3
Draw (1X2)	25.7	28.5	-2.8
Dieppe (1X2)	32.6	27.4	+5.1
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	46.6	+4.0
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	53.4	-4.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Dieppe (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.4%. The difference — about 5.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Haguenau (1X2)	2.02	2.02
Draw (1X2)	3.12	3.12
Dieppe (1X2)	3.24	3.24
Over 2.5 goals	1.97	1.97
Under 2.5 goals	1.72	1.72

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: National 2 - Group B
Fixture: Haguenau vs Dieppe
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Haguenau 1.45 — Dieppe 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 50.6% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +5.1 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 42.9% · No 57.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Thionville Lusitanos	30	18	6	6	60
2	Bourges Foot 18	30	14	10	6	52
3	Haguenau	30	14	9	7	51
4	Feignies-Aulnoye	30	12	10	8	46
5	Furiani-Agliani	30	13	6	11	45
6	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	30	12	6	12	42
7	Dieppe	30	11	8	11	41
8	Bastia-Borgo	30	11	7	12	40
9	Epinal	30	11	7	12	40
10	Biesheim	30	10	10	10	39
11	Colmar	30	9	11	10	37
12	Beauvais	30	9	11	10	35
13	Wasquehal	30	10	4	16	34
14	Chambly Thelle FC	30	9	10	11	34
15	Chantilly	30	6	9	15	27
16	Blois	30	7	4	19	25

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Thionville Lusitanos	30	53	36	+17	60
2	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	30	48	44	+4	42
3	Furiani-Agliani	30	45	40	+5	45
4	Haguenau	30	43	29	+14	51
5	Feignies-Aulnoye	30	41	24	+17	46
6	Colmar	30	41	43	-2	37
7	Beauvais	30	39	42	-3	35
8	Bourges Foot 18	30	35	24	+11	52
9	Chambly Thelle FC	30	35	35	0	34
10	Bastia-Borgo	30	32	37	-5	40
11	Epinal	30	32	37	-5	40
12	Chantilly	30	32	42	-10	27
13	Dieppe	30	31	36	-5	41
14	Biesheim	30	31	37	-6	39
15	Blois	30	31	47	-16	25
16	Wasquehal	30	28	44	-16	34