Statistics / Football / France. National 2 - Group C / Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Grasse

Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Grasse Statistics & Analysis

Fréjus St-Raphaël Fréjus St-Raphaël
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Grasse Grasse
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fréjus St-Raphaël Fréjus St-Raphaël ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 17:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3199062

Closing Odds 2.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fréjus St-Raphaël win · Fréjus St-Raphaël 1–0 Grasse
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fréjus St-Raphaël (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fréjus St-Raphaël (1X2) 41.8 37.8 +3.9
Draw (1X2) 25.7 28.2 -2.6
Grasse (1X2) 32.6 33.9 -1.4
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 45.8 +4.8
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 54.2 -4.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.8%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fréjus St-Raphaël (1X2) 2.35 2.35 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.15 3.15 0.0
Grasse (1X2) 2.62 2.62 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 2 - Group C
  • Fixture: Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Grasse
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Fréjus St-Raphaël 1.45 — Grasse 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS No (Yes 47.4% · No 52.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.4% · No 52.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National 2 - Group C National 2 - Group C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cannes 31 17 10 4 61
2 Nimes 30 18 5 7 59
3 St Maur Lusitanos 30 15 10 5 55
4 Rumilly Vallières 30 13 8 9 47
5 Hyères 31 11 13 7 46
6 Andrézieux 30 12 9 9 45
7 Istres 30 11 10 9 43
8 Creteil 30 12 7 11 43
9 Chasselay MDA 30 11 8 11 41
10 Grasse 30 9 9 12 36
11 Fréjus St-Raphaël 30 9 8 13 35
12 Limonest 30 9 7 14 34
13 Toulon 30 8 10 12 34
14 Bobigny 30 7 11 12 32
15 Saint-Priest 30 7 9 14 30
16 Rousset-Ste Victoire 30 2 6 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cannes 31 56 33 +23 61
2 Rumilly Vallières 30 49 36 +13 47
3 Andrézieux 30 48 33 +15 45
4 Nimes 30 46 25 +21 59
5 Istres 30 42 32 +10 43
6 Grasse 30 41 42 -1 36
7 St Maur Lusitanos 30 40 24 +16 55
8 Hyères 31 39 30 +9 46
9 Chasselay MDA 30 38 46 -8 41
10 Toulon 30 38 47 -9 34
11 Fréjus St-Raphaël 30 37 50 -13 35
12 Creteil 30 36 34 +2 43
13 Limonest 30 36 49 -13 34
14 Saint-Priest 30 35 50 -15 30
15 Bobigny 30 29 31 -2 32
16 Rousset-Ste Victoire 30 28 76 -48 12
National 2 - Group C France. National 2 - Group C Predictions