Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Mittelrhein / Bergisch Gladbach vs Frechen

Bergisch Gladbach vs Frechen Statistics & Analysis

Bergisch Gladbach Bergisch Gladbach
May 17, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Frechen Frechen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bergisch Gladbach Bergisch Gladbach ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1604967

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bergisch Gladbach win · Bergisch Gladbach 4–1 Frechen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Mittelrhein
  • Fixture: Bergisch Gladbach vs Frechen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bergisch Gladbach 1.45 — Frechen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 30.3% · Over 2.5 69.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 80.6% · No 19.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 80.6% · No 19.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Oberliga - Mittelrhein Oberliga - Mittelrhein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bergisch Gladbach 30 20 7 3 67
2 Eintracht Hohkeppel 30 20 4 6 64
3 Siegburger SV 30 19 6 6 62
4 SSV Merten 30 18 6 6 60
5 VfL Vichttal 30 18 6 7 59
6 Wegberg-Beeck 30 15 6 9 51
7 Frechen 30 16 2 12 50
8 Bornheim 30 14 4 12 46
9 TuS BW Königsdorf 30 14 4 12 46
10 Fortuna Köln II 30 13 6 11 45
11 Düren Merzenich 30 11 5 14 38
12 Hennef 05 30 11 2 17 35
13 Porz 30 7 4 19 25
14 Teutonia Weiden 30 4 4 22 16
15 SF Düren 30 4 2 24 14
16 Pesch 30 2 2 26 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eintracht Hohkeppel 30 86 36 +50 64
2 Bergisch Gladbach 30 85 28 +57 67
3 SSV Merten 30 80 28 +52 60
4 VfL Vichttal 30 80 43 +37 59
5 Siegburger SV 30 75 34 +41 62
6 Frechen 30 66 54 +12 50
7 Bornheim 30 65 56 +9 46
8 Wegberg-Beeck 30 62 35 +27 51
9 Fortuna Köln II 30 62 47 +15 45
10 Porz 30 58 99 -41 25
11 TuS BW Königsdorf 30 53 54 -1 46
12 Düren Merzenich 30 49 59 -10 38
13 Hennef 05 30 45 66 -21 35
14 SF Düren 30 41 103 -62 14
15 Pesch 30 26 112 -86 8
16 Teutonia Weiden 30 25 104 -79 16
Oberliga - Mittelrhein Germany. Oberliga - Mittelrhein Predictions