Malacky vs Trenčín II Statistics & Analysis

Malacky

May 09, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Trenčín II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 draw Malacky ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, 2-2, 0-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 08:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3655590

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Malacky win · Malacky 1–0 Trenčín II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. liga - West
Fixture: Malacky vs Trenčín II
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Malacky 1.45 — Trenčín II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.1% · Over 2.5 73.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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