Kežmarok vs Humenné Statistics & Analysis

Kežmarok

May 23, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.45

6 1.25

xG Accuracy: 18%

Humenné

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Kežmarok Humenné ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5630072

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Humenné win · Kežmarok 0–6 Humenné

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. liga - East
Fixture: Kežmarok vs Humenné
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Kežmarok 1.45 — Humenné 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 30.3% · Over 2.5 69.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 83.3% · No 16.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 83.3% · No 16.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

3. liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Humenné	26	21	5	0	68
2	Spišská Nová Ves	26	20	5	1	65
3	MSK Tesla Stropkov	26	13	5	8	44
4	Lipany	26	13	4	9	43
5	Poprad	26	11	4	11	37
6	Raslavice	26	10	5	10	35
7	Spartak Medzev	26	9	6	11	33
8	Snina	26	8	7	11	31
9	Kežmarok	26	9	4	13	31
10	Lokomotíva Košice	26	7	9	10	30
11	Košice II	26	8	5	13	29
12	Vranov nad Topľou	26	5	10	11	25
13	Slovan Sabinov	26	5	9	12	24
14	Spišské Podhradie	26	2	4	20	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Humenné	26	88	20	+68	68
2	Spišská Nová Ves	26	66	18	+48	65
3	MSK Tesla Stropkov	26	48	37	+11	44
4	Spartak Medzev	26	47	50	-3	33
5	Lipany	26	46	43	+3	43
6	Raslavice	26	46	45	+1	35
7	Košice II	26	43	48	-5	29
8	Kežmarok	26	42	48	-6	31
9	Poprad	26	35	34	+1	37
10	Snina	26	33	38	-5	31
11	Vranov nad Topľou	26	33	45	-12	25
12	Lokomotíva Košice	26	33	59	-26	30
13	Spišské Podhradie	26	27	81	-54	10
14	Slovan Sabinov	26	26	47	-21	24