Statistics / Football / Slovakia. 3. liga - Center / Rimavská Sobota vs Baník Kalinovo

Rimavská Sobota vs Baník Kalinovo Statistics & Analysis

Rimavská Sobota Rimavská Sobota
May 30, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Baník Kalinovo Baník Kalinovo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rimavská Sobota Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3120019

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Rimavská Sobota 0–0 Baník Kalinovo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Baník Kalinovo (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rimavská Sobota (1X2) 41.8 51.7 -9.9
Draw (1X2) 25.7 22.9 +2.7
Baník Kalinovo (1X2) 32.6 25.4 +7.2
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 66.9 -16.3
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 33.1 +16.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.1%. The difference — about 16.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rimavská Sobota (1X2) 1.74 1.74 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.92 3.92 0.0
Baník Kalinovo (1X2) 3.54 3.54 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.75 2.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - Center
  • Fixture: Rimavská Sobota vs Baník Kalinovo
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Rimavská Sobota 1.45 — Baník Kalinovo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 34.2% · Probability edge: +15.2 pts · Est. EV: +35.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.8% · No 40.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. liga - Center 3. liga - Center — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MFK Bytča 26 18 5 3 59
2 Banská Byst II 26 15 7 4 52
3 Námestovo 26 17 3 6 54
4 Novohrad Lučenec 26 12 7 7 43
5 Fiľakovo 26 13 4 9 43
6 Fomat Martin 26 11 7 8 40
7 Rimavská Sobota 26 10 6 10 36
8 Ružomberok II 26 10 6 10 36
9 Podkonice 26 10 4 12 34
10 Baník Kalinovo 26 9 3 14 30
11 Oravské Veselé 26 7 5 14 26
12 Dolný Kubín 26 5 7 14 22
13 Kysucké Nové Mesto 26 4 6 16 18
14 Jednota Bánová 26 3 6 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Námestovo 26 66 28 +38 54
2 MFK Bytča 26 57 30 +27 59
3 Rimavská Sobota 26 53 57 -4 36
4 Fomat Martin 26 51 38 +13 40
5 Ružomberok II 26 50 44 +6 36
6 Banská Byst II 26 49 29 +20 52
7 Fiľakovo 26 46 44 +2 43
8 Dolný Kubín 26 42 63 -21 22
9 Podkonice 26 40 40 0 34
10 Novohrad Lučenec 26 39 33 +6 43
11 Oravské Veselé 26 36 45 -9 26
12 Baník Kalinovo 26 30 43 -13 30
13 Jednota Bánová 26 26 59 -33 15
14 Kysucké Nové Mesto 26 19 51 -32 18
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