Home United vs Albirex Niigata S Statistics & Analysis

Home United

May 10, 2026 - 11:30

0 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

Albirex Niigata S

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Home United Albirex Niigata S ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1486990

Closing Odds 1.78

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Albirex Niigata S win · Home United 0–2 Albirex Niigata S

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.38 percentage points on Home United (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Home United (1X2)	41.8	52.1	-10.3
Draw (1X2)	25.7	23.2	+2.4
Albirex Niigata S (1X2)	32.6	24.7	+7.8
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	60.3	-9.7
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	39.7	+9.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.7%. The difference — about 9.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Home United (1X2)	1.69	1.78	-2.4
Draw (1X2)	4.08	3.99	+0.7
Albirex Niigata S (1X2)	4.0	3.75	+1.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.55	-0.6
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	2.35	+0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Home United vs Albirex Niigata S
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Home United 1.45 — Albirex Niigata S 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 38.7% · Probability edge: +10.7 pts · Est. EV: +26.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 84.8% · No 15.2%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Home United	20	16	3	1	51
2	Albirex Niigata S	21	15	2	4	47
3	Tampines Rovers	20	14	4	2	46
4	Balestier Khalsa	21	11	2	8	35
5	Geylang International	21	7	3	11	24
6	Hougang United	20	7	0	13	21
7	Young Lions	21	2	3	16	9
8	Tanjong Pagar	20	1	1	18	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Home United	20	68	11	+57	51
2	Tampines Rovers	20	55	19	+36	46
3	Albirex Niigata S	21	47	19	+28	47
4	Balestier Khalsa	21	44	46	-2	35
5	Geylang International	21	29	42	-13	24
6	Hougang United	20	23	39	-16	21
7	Young Lions	21	15	58	-43	9
8	Tanjong Pagar	20	15	62	-47	4