Balestier Khalsa vs Tanjong Pagar Statistics & Analysis

Balestier Khalsa

May 09, 2026 - 11:30

6 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 20%

Tanjong Pagar

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Balestier Khalsa Balestier Khalsa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 12:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1595992

Closing Odds 1.49

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Balestier Khalsa win · Balestier Khalsa 6–0 Tanjong Pagar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Tanjong Pagar (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tanjong Pagar (1X2) by about 13.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Balestier Khalsa (1X2)	41.8	62.3	-20.6
Draw (1X2)	25.7	18.7	+7.0
Tanjong Pagar (1X2)	32.6	18.9	+13.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Tanjong Pagar (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.9%. The difference — about 13.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Balestier Khalsa (1X2)	1.49	1.49
Draw (1X2)	4.96	4.96
Tanjong Pagar (1X2)	4.9	4.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Balestier Khalsa vs Tanjong Pagar
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Balestier Khalsa 1.45 — Tanjong Pagar 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 25.3% · Over 2.5 74.7%); BTTS No (Yes 38.8% · No 61.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 38.8% · No 61.2%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Home United	20	16	3	1	51
2	Albirex Niigata S	21	15	2	4	47
3	Tampines Rovers	20	14	4	2	46
4	Balestier Khalsa	21	11	2	8	35
5	Geylang International	21	7	3	11	24
6	Hougang United	20	7	0	13	21
7	Young Lions	21	2	3	16	9
8	Tanjong Pagar	20	1	1	18	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Home United	20	68	11	+57	51
2	Tampines Rovers	20	55	19	+36	46
3	Albirex Niigata S	21	47	19	+28	47
4	Balestier Khalsa	21	44	46	-2	35
5	Geylang International	21	29	42	-13	24
6	Hougang United	20	23	39	-16	21
7	Young Lions	21	15	58	-43	9
8	Tanjong Pagar	20	15	62	-47	4