Young Boys II vs Kreuzlingen Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: 1. Liga Promotion
• Fixture: Young Boys II vs Kreuzlingen
• Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Young Boys II 1.45 — Kreuzlingen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
• Model: 48.7% · Implied: 34.4% · Probability edge: +14.3 pts · Est. EV: +33.9%
• BTTS (model): Yes 51.3% · No 48.7%
• Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Primary pick from the decision engine: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)