Neusiedl vs Wiener Viktoria Statistics & Analysis

Neusiedl

Jun 03, 2026 - 17:30

2 1.10

5 0.88

xG Accuracy: 25%

Wiener Viktoria

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Neusiedl Wiener Viktoria ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2541552

Closing Odds 1.98

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Wiener Viktoria win · Neusiedl 2–5 Wiener Viktoria

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Neusiedl (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 35.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Neusiedl (1X2)	38.6	34.6	+4.0
Draw (1X2)	34.3	20.5	+13.8
Wiener Viktoria (1X2)	27.1	44.9	-17.8
Over 2.5 goals	31.8	67.1	-35.3
Under 2.5 goals	68.2	32.9	+35.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 68.2% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.9%. The difference — about 35.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Neusiedl (1X2)	2.57	2.57
Draw (1X2)	4.34	4.34
Wiener Viktoria (1X2)	1.98	1.98
Over 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36
Under 2.5 goals	2.77	2.77

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Regionalliga - Ost
Fixture: Neusiedl vs Wiener Viktoria
Kickoff: 2026-06-05 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.6% · Draw 34.3% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): Neusiedl 1.1 — Wiener Viktoria 0.88 (total xG ≈ 1.98)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 68.2% · Implied: 27.4% · Probability edge: +40.8 pts · Est. EV: +155.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 40.8% · No 59.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - Ost — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Parndorf	32	18	8	6	62
2	Gloggnitz	32	18	8	6	62
3	Krems / Rehberg	32	17	7	8	58
4	Leobendorf	32	18	3	11	57
5	Oberwart	32	17	5	10	56
6	SV Horn	32	14	9	9	51
7	Traiskirchen	32	14	8	10	50
8	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	32	13	10	9	49
9	Fach-Donaufeld	32	13	8	11	47
10	Wiener SC	32	13	7	12	46
11	Wiener Viktoria	32	13	6	13	45
12	Donau	32	12	8	12	44
13	Favoritner AC	32	12	3	17	39
14	Union Mauer	32	10	7	15	37
15	Neusiedl	32	8	5	19	29
16	Retz	32	4	8	20	20
17	TWL Elektra	32	2	2	28	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Oberwart	32	73	42	+31	56
2	Traiskirchen	32	70	52	+18	50
3	Krems / Rehberg	32	61	33	+28	58
4	Parndorf	32	58	34	+24	62
5	Gloggnitz	32	58	45	+13	62
6	SV Horn	32	57	35	+22	51
7	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	32	55	37	+18	49
8	Wiener SC	32	54	52	+2	46
9	Fach-Donaufeld	32	51	44	+7	47
10	Wiener Viktoria	32	50	51	-1	45
11	Donau	32	50	57	-7	44
12	Leobendorf	32	48	34	+14	57
13	Neusiedl	32	46	72	-26	29
14	Favoritner AC	32	44	52	-8	39
15	Union Mauer	32	32	47	-15	37
16	Retz	32	25	64	-39	20
17	TWL Elektra	32	21	102	-81	8