Statistics / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Fach-Donaufeld vs TWL Elektra

Fach-Donaufeld vs TWL Elektra Statistics & Analysis

Fach-Donaufeld Fach-Donaufeld
May 29, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
TWL Elektra TWL Elektra
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fach-Donaufeld Fach-Donaufeld ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1460302

Closing Odds 1.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fach-Donaufeld win · Fach-Donaufeld 4–2 TWL Elektra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), TWL Elektra (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on TWL Elektra (1X2) by about 26.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fach-Donaufeld (1X2) 41.8 88.0 -46.3
Draw (1X2) 25.7 6.1 +19.6
TWL Elektra (1X2) 32.6 5.8 +26.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on TWL Elektra (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 5.8%. The difference — about 26.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fach-Donaufeld (1X2) 1.03 1.03 0.0
Draw (1X2) 14.81 14.81 0.0
TWL Elektra (1X2) 15.5 15.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Fach-Donaufeld; market prices Fach-Donaufeld instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Fach-Donaufeld 1.45 xG vs TWL Elektra 1.25 → Fach-Donaufeld 41.8%
  • Market: Fach-Donaufeld ~88.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS No (Yes 29.3% · No 70.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions