West Ham W vs Manchester City W Statistics & Analysis

West Ham W

May 16, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.45

4 1.25

xG Accuracy: 42%

Manchester City W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 West Ham W Manchester City W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 0-3, 1-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1766042

Closing Odds 1.16

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Manchester City W win · West Ham W 1–4 Manchester City W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices West Ham W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on West Ham W (1X2) by about 33.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
West Ham W (1X2)	41.8	7.9	+33.9
Draw (1X2)	25.7	12.2	+13.5
Manchester City W (1X2)	32.6	79.9	-47.4
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	63.2	-12.7
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	36.8	+12.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on West Ham W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.9%. The difference — about 33.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
West Ham W (1X2)	11.79	11.79
Draw (1X2)	7.6	7.6
Manchester City W (1X2)	1.16	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	1.47	1.47
Under 2.5 goals	2.53	2.53

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours West Ham W; market prices Manchester City W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: West Ham W 1.45 xG vs Manchester City W 1.25 → West Ham W 41.8%
Market: Manchester City W ~7.9% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.7% · No 48.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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FA WSL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Manchester City W	22	18	1	3	55
2	Arsenal W	22	15	6	1	51
3	Chelsea W	22	15	4	3	49
4	Manchester United W	22	11	7	4	40
5	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	11	3	8	36
6	London City Lionesses	22	8	3	11	27
7	Brighton W	22	7	5	10	26
8	Everton W	22	7	2	13	23
9	Aston Villa W	22	5	5	12	20
10	West Ham W	22	5	4	13	19
11	Liverpool W	22	4	5	13	17
12	Leicester City WFC	22	2	3	17	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Manchester City W	22	62	19	+43	55
2	Arsenal W	22	53	14	+39	51
3	Chelsea W	22	44	20	+24	49
4	Manchester United W	22	38	22	+16	40
5	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	35	38	-3	36
6	London City Lionesses	22	28	35	-7	27
7	Aston Villa W	22	28	48	-20	20
8	Brighton W	22	27	28	-1	26
9	Everton W	22	25	37	-12	23
10	Liverpool W	22	21	34	-13	17
11	West Ham W	22	20	45	-25	19
12	Leicester City WFC	22	11	52	-41	9

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Arsenal W	22	1.2	0.2	+1.0	51
2	Everton W	22	0.2	1.2	-1.0	23
3	Manchester City W	22	—	—	—	55
4	Chelsea W	22	—	—	—	49
5	Manchester United W	22	—	—	—	40
6	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	—	—	—	36
7	London City Lionesses	22	—	—	—	27
8	Brighton W	22	—	—	—	26
9	Aston Villa W	22	—	—	—	20
10	West Ham W	22	—	—	—	19
11	Liverpool W	22	—	—	—	17
12	Leicester City WFC	22	—	—	—	9